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The Forecasting Business

November 13th, 2012 by admin

Viv Forbes
Written 1998.

Recently, our farmers and miners (at least the rich or naive ones) gathered at the altar in Canberra to hear the ABARE forecasts for our great primary industries.

They should have stayed at home. They obviously had not heard of a similar conference held by the German Furniture Manufacturers’ Guild in Munich in 1928. To help them plan their future the Germans invited the greatest political prophet in Europe to forecast the conditions they could expect in 5, 15, 20, 40 and 60 years’ time. He gave the five year forecast first.

“In 1933,” said the prophet “Germany will have 5 million unemployed and will be ruled by an unstable dictator using emergency powers and an army of secret police”.

This disturbed the burghers, but they were reassured by his 15 year forecast.

“By 1943, I predict that Munich will be part of a Greater Germany which stretches from the Volga to the Atlantic and from the Arctic to the Sahara.”

While the burghers were still dreaming of the market possibilities of Greater Germany, the prophet went on.
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